Battle for Osun 2026: What to Expect in the High Stakes Next Governorship Election - By Akanni Omooba

Osun State politics has long been shaped by fierce competition between major political parties, strong personalities, and shifting alliances. The next governorship election will likely reflect this dynamic, with several key factors influencing the outcome:

1. Governor Ademola Adeleke’s Performance

As the incumbent governor under the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Adeleke’s re-election bid (if he runs) will depend on his administration’s ability to deliver on campaign promises. His policies on workers’ welfare, infrastructure development, education, and healthcare will be under scrutiny. If he maintains his current momentum, he could consolidate his base, but any perceived shortcomings may create opportunities for the opposition.

2. All Progressives Congress (APC) Resurgence

The APC, led by former governor Gboyega Oyetola, remains a formidable force in Osun. Despite losing the 2022 election, the party is likely to regroup and leverage its national network to reclaim the state. Oyetola’s achievements during his tenure, coupled with the party’s ability to rally disenchanted voters, could be central to their strategy.

3. Youth and Grassroots Mobilization

The role of youth and grassroots movements cannot be underestimated. Osun has a history of vibrant political engagement, and candidates who effectively harness this energy through technology, social media, and community outreach may gain an edge.

4. National Political Dynamics

Osun’s governorship election may also be influenced by national trends. The performance of the ruling party at the federal level and the level of support for the PDP nationally could sway voters. Issues such as the economy, security, and federal allocation to states will likely impact the mood of the electorate.

5. Emergence of Third-Party Candidates

While Osun politics has been dominated by the PDP and APC, there is a growing appetite for alternatives among younger voters. If a credible third-party candidate emerges, they could disrupt the traditional two-horse race.

6. Ethnic and Regional Considerations

Osun’s diverse ethnic and regional makeup often plays a subtle role in elections. Candidates with broad appeal across zones like Osogbo, Ijesha, and Ife will have an advantage in consolidating support.

7. Access to Federal Resources

As the ruling party at the federal level, the APC can channel significant resources into Osun. This includes financial backing, logistical support, and the ability to mobilize federal agencies to aid their campaign. Such resources can amplify grassroots mobilization and create a stronger presence in critical areas.

Potential Challenges

While federal might is a powerful factor, it is not always a guarantee of success. Voters in Osun, known for their political awareness, may resist external interference. Additionally, any overt misuse of federal power could trigger public backlash or even judicial challenges post-election.

If strategically deployed, federal might could give the APC a significant edge in Osun’s governorship election. However, the party must balance its influence with a compelling local campaign to avoid alienating the electorate. The extent to which this factor will shape the election depends on how the PDP counters it and the neutrality of key institutions.

Likely Outcome

The next election is likely to be a tight race between the PDP and APC, with the incumbent having the upper hand if Adeleke’s administration is perceived as successful. However, internal party unity, voter turnout, and external influences (Federal might) could swing the pendulum. A strong opposition, voter dissatisfaction, or unexpected alliances may introduce surprises.

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